China in the National Interest by Owen Harries

Author:Owen Harries [Harries, Owen]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781351528788
Google: uiIxDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 9959255
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2002-11-22T00:00:00+00:00

Crisis = Dangers + Opportunities

The Chinese word for crisis, weiji, is a combination of the words for danger and opportunity, and this is indeed the best way to see the current succession “crisis.” From the perspective of China’s leaders, there is the ever present danger of elite conflict and the loss of power by one group or another. This inherent uncertainty makes a period of protracted succession struggles particularly worrisome. But there is also opportunity at hand for policy innovation and consolidation.

A divided leadership is especially dangerous if one leader or group of leaders reaches out to society for support against his opponents, real or imagined. This was a favorite tactic of Mao’s, and it was also used successfully by Deng during the Democracy Wall movement in late 1978. Zhao Ziyang tried a similar tack in 1989, when, after losing the support of Deng and other party elders, he sided with the student demonstrators. Zhao’s public statements of sympathy for the goals and methods of the protesters (combined with private communications between political reformers within the party and student leaders) signaled a split within the leadership, emboldening some protesters to press their demands, confident that at least some party leaders would support them. In a perhaps apocryphal but nevertheless telling exchange between Deng and Zhao during this struggle, Deng boasted that he had the support of three million soldiers, and Zhao replied he had the support of one billion Chinese. Deng then answered, “You have nothing”—and of course Deng was right. Amorphous popular support is no match for political organization and live ammunition.

Nevertheless, despite Deng’s early support for an immediate crackdown, and despite his high prestige and network of supporters in the party, government, and military, the student movement continued for over a month before its tragic dénouement. Much of Deng’s political capital among his colleagues, within Chinese society, and in the international community was spent imposing martial law. In Deng’s absence, elite consensus on behalf of such severe measures will be even harder to achieve. With political dissatisfaction running high in society, populist appeals will be that much more threatening to party leaders against whom they are directed, and that much more tempting to party leaders who can rally popular support for their cause.

Periods of succession are also rare opportunities for policy innovation. The opacity of top-level policymaking in China makes it difficult to predict what form any innovation may take, but Chinese leaders, as well as those in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, have often used succession as an opportunity to embark on sudden and unanticipated reforms.

For the past several years, Deng was too weak physically to have much direct involvement in the policy process, but his political influence remained strong. Hence, while he no longer initiated change, his presence blocked others who might have done so for fear of exposing themselves to charges of disloyalty and factionalism. Now such constraints are removed. Leaders are free to promote their own agendas, and

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